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By Karen in COVID —

Wastewater Wednesday (a day late) - 2/27/25

Apologies for being late with this week's wastewater update. Yesterday was full of (good! community-building!) mayhem and so I ran out of time. But let's get to it. Here's your Wastewater Wednesday update on Thursday because the 💩 doesn't lie!

COVID

COVID-19 Wastewater Surveillance in Wisconsin graph. 0 sites are reporting a significant increase, and after slowing, the decline in SARS-CoV-2 levels in the wastewater now appears to be continuing at a steady, though not rapid, rate.
Statewide wastewater graph from https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/wastewater.htm

Let's start with the good news - COVID levels in the wastewater are continuing to drop! After looking like we might have been entering a high plateau last week, this is a welcome change of events!

This does not mean that levels are dropping evenly in all sewersheds, however. A few (such as Milwaukee Jones Island and Walworth County) are still showing increases, albeit shallow ones.

But we're not at the mercy of the data - our actions shape what this graph will look like in the future, and we CAN continue to drive those levels lower if we mask up, clean the air, and stay home when we're sick.

National Data

US New Daily COVID-19 Infections Estimated from Wastewater https://www.pmc19.com/data. The graph shows the 10th major wave of the pandemic is in decline, after having a nearly monthlong plateau of high transmission. Currently 1 in 87 people (1.2%) are infectious, and we are seeing approximately 500k new infections per day.
https://www.pmc19.com/data

Zooming out now to the national level, we also see a welcome decline in the SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration. However, in absolute terms, there is still a lot of COVID out there. 1 in 87 people is actively infectious, which means that if you're on a plane, there's almost certainly someone contagious on there with you. If you're in a classroom of 30 students, there's a nearly 30% chance that someone is infectious.

US COVID-19 Transmission for the Past 12 Months and Forecast. The model all predicts that transmission is going to bottom out within the next couple weeks before trending back upwards by late March.

Looking ahead, I do not like what the forecast models are showing us. If this forecast holds, transmission is going to bottom out within the next few weeks, before trending upwards again right around when spring break starts hitting. I'm holding out hope that it will be a small bump before declining into the late spring/early summer, but time will tell.

Influenza

Meanwhile, checking out the influenza data, it looks like we may have crossed the peak of our absolutely massive Flu A wave; however, levels are still triple what they were last year, and it's possible that we may see a resurgence or a Flu B wave as we head into March (as happened last year).

Number of Specimens Tested and Positive for Influenza by PCR at Wisconsin Laboratories. The number of samples positive for Flu A peaked in the first two weeks of February, at about 8,000 cases; the number of samples positive for Flu B, though small, has increased slightly in the past two weeks.
Source: https://www.slh.wisc.edu/wcln-surveillance/surveillance/virology-surveillance/influenza-activity/#pcr

Remember - our actions drive the data. It's not too late to get your flu shot, and wearing a well-fitting respirator will absolutely give you protection against the flu as well as COVID!

Stay safe out there, friends!

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