Wastewater Wednesday - 8/6/25

COVID

It's been a while, but Wastewater Wednesday is back. Unfortunately, so is COVID. (Not that it ever really left, but there was definitely less of it around for a while!)

Nationally, the next wave has been taking off for a while, primarily driven by two variants, nicknamed Nimbus (the razor-blade throat one) and Stratus (anecdotally distinguished by hoarseness/laryngitis).

Levels are particularly bad in states like Texas (1 in 38 actively infectious), Alaska (1 in 33 actively infectious), and Hawaii (1 in 32 actively infectious). But as of the last wastewater update yesterday, the eleventh wave has arrived in Wisconsin as well.

National Data

The PMC data map gives a clear picture of the nationwide situation - Alaska, Hawaii, and Texas lead the way on transmission, with California, Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama, Florida, and Delaware not far behind. The upper Midwest is (as is typical) the last region to see the wave kick off, but it's only a matter of time.

Compared to previous years, the PMC model shows us currently tracking most closely to 2023-24, which suggests that while the start of the school year won't be quite as brutal as last year, we may have another massive winter wave.

Given what's going on with RFK Jr. at the helm of HHS, it's unclear to what extent updated vaccines will be available this fall, however it's worth noting that only about 18% of adults even bothered to get the updated vaccine last fall.

Overall, 1 in 95 people across the country is currently infectious, meaning that in a classroom of 30 students, there's a better than 1 in 4 chance that someone has COVID. There is more transmission happening right now than in 53.3% of the entire pandemic, and between 1,300 and 2,100 people are dying every week.

Wisconsin Data

The statewide graph shows that we've been in a pretty long lull, but that lull is definitely over. What the tiny upswing at the end of the graph isn't telling you is that in the sewersheds that COVID is hitting, it's hitting hard.

Take, for example, Oconomowoc, which had been chugging along for most of the summer between 15-30MGC/person/day. Now it has jumped to 76.5MGC/person/day:

Or here's Janesville, which had been nearly flat around 15MGC/person/day for weeks, but has now jumped to 46.3MGC/person/day.

Appleton, Ashland, Black River Falls, Lancaster, Oregon, Portage, Racine, and Watertown are also all seeing major increases in the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in their wastewater. It won't be long before we start to see it show up in Madison and Milwaukee too, which is when we'll really see the impact on the statewide graph. Just in time for school to start.

So What Does It All Mean?

It means that if you've relaxed your precautions, now is an excellent time to start them back up again--before you get sick! Luckily, there are a number of good deals right now on masks and other supplies (which is also handy since the smoky air outside is trying to kill us too and measles has entered the chat), so stock up and protect yourself!

Bona Fide Masks is currently running a 25% off sale with coupon BFM25.

Flowflex COVID or COVID/flu tests are 10% off at Pharmalynk with code KIT10.

Masks and tests are 10% off at WellBefore with code HOERGER10. They're also a good source for kids' masks.

BeHealthy USA is running a 20% off sale with code SUMMER2025 and they have a lot of clearance priced masks as well. The Posh KF94s are a good option for little kids because they come in fun patterns.

If you want to level up from disposable masks to an elastomeric, some Flomask has some of their kid products on sale for the back to school season. Their adult masks are unfortunately not on sale right now, but if you can swing the price, they're a very lightweight and comfortable option, especially if your face is on the rounder side. If you're looking at other elastomeric masks, I highly recommend checking out semi-obscure industrial supply stores...for example, I got a good price on a new GVS Elipse at BlastOne not too long ago.

Air purifiers are another good investment to make, especially with the nonstop wildfire smoke. I'll try to get a separate post up about those soon with my favorite products!

Conclusion

The pandemic, unfortunately, is still with us. It's still making people sick, it's still disabling people, and it's still killing people. And the government not only doesn't care, it's leaning in hard to eugenics and actively making things worse. But we don't have to accept that. We can take care of ourselves and each other. If you need mask recommendations, reach out! If you want me to send you some different masks to try, I'm happy to do it! We keep us safe. Let's all do what we can.